Stable states and transitions in African savannas. Soil N availability is related to parent material and weathering rates that influence biological nitrogen fixation (P-limitation), import and export of N (herbivores, humans, fire). Tree recruitment is related to browsing and grazing intensity, seasonal weather variations and fire frequency/intensity.

Transition

Description

Example scenarios at continental to landscape scales  (a) and at landscape to patch scales (b)

1

Fertile to infertile

a)      Decline in soil fertility as soil weathers (P declines) during millennial time-scales

b)      Imposed high fire frequency with low grazing intensity reduces N at decade to century time scales

2

Infertile to fertile

a)      Gradual build-up in N status when N inputs (e.g. industrial N deposition) exceed losses in fire and trace gas emissions.

b)      Nutrient redistribution/concentration in the landscape, e.g. herbivore-favored grazing lawns, old village sites, termitaria, etc.

3

Open to closed

a)      and b)  Replacement of wild herbivores by high and sustained populations of domestic cattle, especially with concurrent fire suppression

4

Closed to open

a)      and b) Severe disturbance of tree population caused by, for example, fire after drought or pest/disease outbreak

Transitions between stable states in African savanna. Some transitions may occur under current conditions or can be induced experimentally, others are less easily observable/are hypothetical.