INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON LAND USE IN TEMPERATE EAST ASIA (LUTEA): INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM AND ECONOMIC FACTORS DETERMINING LAND USE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

The impact of climate change on temperate ecosystems (such as croplands, grasslands, and forests) affects physical, ecological and socio-economic processes. Changes in these processes affects the soil fertility, soil moisture, and soil organic matter resulting in further regional land use and climate changes. These changes in land use and climate at the regional scale are often quite different from national or continental scale changes, so that regional differences are expected with in land use decisions relative to climate change. Integrated assessments (IA) are needed to more completely model whole human-environment systems. IA efforts are under way that provide spatial and sectoral detail necessary to achieve reliable estimates of land use and ecological changes at county to regional scales.

The objectives here are: (1) to explore the development of an information linkage between the CENTURY terrestrial ecosystem model and social economic data; (2) to describe the analytical framework to assess the importance of the critical human and environmental factors controlling land use decisions at local and regional scales. This presentation provides insight to the interactions of climate, ecosystem, economic and socio-cultural interactions controlling land use change at local to regional scales. The ability to analyze the integrated effects of the factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic integrity relative to changes in climate and land use management of the these ecosystems is a complicated task. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems is provided using a modelling approach that includes all the major components and links them together in an integrated fashion. Development of this framework for assessing changes and incorporation of information to integrate factors controlling ecosystem and social-economic dynamics.

Technological advances in remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and ecological simulation modeling have increased our ability to link information across a broad array of disciplines. This ability has allowed us to begin to answer a variety of complex issues related to changing patterns of environmental and socio-political drivers in the Temperate East Asia. Since land use change is a dynamic process, the integration of GIS with simulation techniques provides a way to examine their spatial and temporal characteristics and identify forces contributing to land use change. The utility and information content of GIS and RS data depends on our knowledge of the socio-political, economic, and ecosystem structure and function. Thus, a way to increase the utility of RS and GIS data for interpreting land use-ecosystem process has been to combine RS and GIS with socio-economic and ecosystem modeling technologies.

The growing concern over the impact of changes in land use and land cover on environmental conditions and the increasing human impact on the natural resources in the Temperate East Asian region has captured the attention of the political and scientific community world-wide. In order to better understand the factors affecting changes in land use and cover in the region, and how these changes will interact with further global environmental changes the Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA) steering committee was formed by the START-Temperate East Asia Committee (TEACOM). The steering committee has been charged to develop a research framework to better facilitate interactions among the research groups actively investigating aspects of land use and land cover changes in the region, and to serve the policy community in order to better evaluate policy decisions on issues related to food security and environmental degradation in the region.

The influence of land use change on terrestrial carbon dynamics constitutes a core research focus of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) (IGBP Report 21, [Steffen et al. 1992] and 24 [Turner et al. 1993]). Land use decisions are driven by mostly demographic and economic considerations at broad scales and by a medley of social, economic and environmental considerations at regional and local scales. Turner and Meyer (1991) recognized that the driving forces of land use change are different at different spatial scales, though some forces cut across all scales, such as population change. We agree, and argue that a hierarchical or spatially nested analytical framework is needed in order to understand how driving forces of land use and climate changes transform land covers at local to regional scales. In order to develop this frame work, there are currently a number of active research groups conducting studies related to LUTEA objectives. In addition to the existing studies, an IGBP transect has been established to carry out LUTEA studies.

The region of Temperate East Asia has long been recognized for its wealth of natural and human resources. However recently, concern related to the changing environmental conditions in the region due to increasing human pressures degrading the environment have captured the attention of the scientific and political communities. The role of land use and land cover change in maintaining and in some cases leading to the degradation of the environmental health and sustainability of human welfare is a critical to the future of the region. The increasing dependence and utilization of the land and water resources in this region will further tax the limits of the ecological systems and increase the risk of environmental degradation. In addition, the need to produce food and clean water for the growing number of people in the region will further focus attention on the changes in land use and land cover in the region.

Growing from this concern to better understand the factors determining land use and land cover changes in the region and evaluate the potential impact these changes will have on the human condition and future global environmental change, the Temperate East Asian Committee of START (TEACOM) sponsored a working group to develop a science plan for land use and cover change studies in this region. The Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA) working group developed a science plan and organized two workshops (LUTEA workshop November 8-9, 1996 in Kyoto, Japan and 2 to 5 March 1998 in Beijing, China) to refine the science plan and to develop an implementation strategy for LUTEA research activities. This document is the outgrowth of the LUTEA working group deliberations and the consensus view of the participants of the Kyoto and Beijing workshops.

This paper provides the scientific background for land use and cover change studies in the region, defines the structure of the LUTEA activities and outlines the next steps in the implementation of the LUTEA activities. Land use/cover changes in the TEA region has been a major factor in ecosystem changes for a long period of time. Agricultural and livestock developments have been recorded for millennia in this region. Currently the region is one of the most densely populated regions of the world. Due to a long history of environmental exploitation and recent population increases, the region is prone to environmental stresses such as salinization, desertification, deforestation, soil erosion, water pollution and air pollution. The impact of human activities on ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical exchanges with the atmosphere have resulted in dramatic changes in the fluxes of C, N, and other atmospheric constituents in the region.

Our overall objectives are 1) to better understand the role and consequences of changes in climate, ecosystem dynamics, human demography, and socio-economic transitions on land use and land cover in temperate East Asia during the past 100 years and into the next decade; and 2) develop a mechanism to assess the short-term and long-term changes in food security and environmental conservation in the TEA region. The region of study extends from China; Korea, DPR; Korea, R; Japan; Mongolia; and Eastern Russia.

Specific objectives include:

In view of the important role of land use/cover change in this region to past and future changes in global earth system dynamics and the sustainable development of the region, the TEACOM steering committee on LUCC related studies has determined to develop coordination and integration entity for this region in the form of a network.

The function of the LUTEA network is:

The LUTEA steering committee has identified several key scientific issues related to land use/cover changes and these are consistent with the LUCC core project initiatives. These issues are:

Research in the region on various aspects of land use and land cover change is well developed. Research conducted by scientists from around the world are currently engaged in investigations ranging from changes in population affecting land use and natural resources, to impact of intensification of agriculture practices on atmospheric pollution. Studies are being conducted by social and physical scientists on various aspects of the land use and land cover change issues. However, many of the researchers are not aware of what other related research is being conducted and what information has already been gathered that may be relevant to their own research. The development of the LUTEA network will provide a mechanism for greater exchange of information useful for the scientific and the policy communities alike. The network will provide a vehicle for development of common databases that are needed by many of the LUTEA research groups. The workshop in Kyoto initiated the development of the network and we plan to hold a series of similar meetings to further facilitate the exchange of information.

This region covers all of East-Central Asia and South-East Asia north of the Philippines and south of the Arctic Circle. The climate is generally humid to semiarid and determined chiefly by the monsoonal circulation. A strong north to south rainfall and temperature gradient exists. Vegetation and land use practices change systematically across this north to south gradient with cool temperate forest and grasslands in the north where pastoral and forestry land use dominate. Toward the south more arable land is found in regions with mixed broad leaf forest, croplands, and ricefields.

The LUTEA Network consists of existing research groups engaged in investigations within the region (see Appendix of Ongoing LUTEA related Research). The research activities are categorized in topical (or sectoral) issues that are regionally relevant and in description of analytical and assessment methodologies employed by the research groups. The network members have agreed to share information and work together to develop analytical tools and databases in order to better address land use/cover changes in the region and the impact these will have on human welfare and environmental conditions. This information will also serve as a useful tool for policy makers and for evaluation of policy decisions.

The proposed structure of the LUTEA network will be to utilize gradients of important driving factors, such as physical conditions, natural resource base, land use, and economic development, to focus the research efforts in the region. The project will utilize information gathered from past and ongoing research efforts in this region. The use of transects to conduct the gradient analysis will be implemented where feasible. The North East China Transect will be available for this study, and discussion of developing another north-south transect is being considered. The transects will not be the only mechanism to integrate the research findings. The network will pull together information from a number of sources to address research issues along tropical or sectoral foci. The steering committee has selected four topical issues of regional and sectoral importance to the TEA region and defines the initial set of studies and integration activities. The regional sectoral issues are:

The integration activities are:

In the semiarid regions of the TEA, nomadic pastoralism has been the dominant agronomic activity for many centuries. Recently changes in cultural, political and economic factors have caused changes in how the pastoral systems operate within the region. Currently, a range of pastoral systems are operating in the region of China, Mongolia, and Russia. These systems encompass a range of grazing patterns (i.e., frequency, intensity of grazing and the types of animals). These systems have incorporated new breeding stocks that are potentially not suitable to certain climate regimes (e.g., drought conditions of the Gobi desert, cold hardiness against severe winter storms in the Inner Mongolian and Mongolian steppe region). These changes in pastoral management have altered the nomadic patterns of the region.

Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems where climate is highly variable. Thus in many ways pastoral livestock systems are intimately adapted to climatic variability. In general, there is a direct relationship between climate variability and the spatial scale of pastoral exploitation. Extensive nomadic systems are found in the most variable regions; less extensive, more intensive modes of livestock management occur in less variable grazing lands. Climate change in drylands can thus be expected to have important implications for the dynamics and viability of pastoral people, their exploitation patterns and through these exploitation patterns, on land cover and land cover change.

We also recognize the pervasive role of demographic, political and economic driving forces on pastoral exploitation. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. This set of drivers is orthogonal to the above described climate drivers. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces mentioned above. Nevertheless, the fundamental relationship between climate variability and pastoral exploitation patterns will still form the environmental framework for overall patterns of land use-land cover change.

In addition, recent political and economic changes (i.e., in the past 50 years) in land use management have resulted in a more sedentary livestock management system. These changes have led to more intensive stocking rates in localized areas and change in the breeds of animals used. More recent changes in the social-economic setting have forced new changes in pastoral management due to relaxation of central government controls and the implementation of a more "free-enterprise" system. What will result from these recent changes in unclear, and the effect on the human and natural resources of these arid and semi-arid regions need to be determined.

Climate

Agricultural output of the Temperate East region is one of the greatest in the world, and is well known for its double and triple cropping systems. High soil fertility, good climate conditions, and an industrious human resource base have all contributed to the rich agricultural production. However, a key issue for the regions is related to food security for the future. In order to maintain current levels of agricultural productivity, there is a need to identify the factors that will maintain sustainability of the agricultural systems relative to climate and other environmental factors. However, the variability is social-economic characteristics also influence the potential output of the agricultural systems and the extent by these systems may be enhanced.

A first task in this area of research will be to survey what agricultural systems exist. Also an analysis of which agricultural system would benefit by intensification of land use practices vs. what region may increase its productivity by increasing the land area under cultivation. Agricultural practices in the TEA has undergone radical changes in the production practices. During the past several decades the use of fertilizer has been markedly increased, introduction of high yielding varieties have been widely used, development of new irrigation systems, increased use of fertilizers, and other changes in agricultural practices. The result has been a significant increase in crop yields over past few decades. However the ability of the region to maintain this increase in crop production under current land use practices is questioned and in many areas soil fertility and water availability has declined. Changes in social structures within Asia may greatly alter the conservation of the environment due to loss of coherency among land users with the rural communities. The manner in which further agricultural developments are implemented or maintained in the region is a critical issue given the increasing human resource demands for agricultural production.

Driving Factors of Agricultural Changes

The prospect of tremendous growth of urban centers is staggering to perceive in the coming decades in Asia. Urban centers in Asia will number over 15, accounting for over 60% of the cities with populations greater than 10 million people. The urban growth is greatly modifying the surrounding area and impacts of these changes on croplands, fuel resources, and water supply will be tremendous. How these areas plan to cope with this burgeoning problem, and what effects will have the rural areas is and will increase in its importance in the coming decade.

As this growth in population levels of urban centers continues, issues related to competition for natural resources become increasingly a major factor in determining the viability of these urban areas. Questions related to the type of social structural entities that are needed to maintain the urban centers need to be addressed. In addition to institutional questions, a better understanding of the social properties, for instance the kinds of laws and cultural practices, that characterize various urban centers are needed. This set of sectoral issues will rely more heavily on the understanding of social-economic topics. New integration techniques may be needed to address these issues.

Currently, the North East China Transect (NECT), centered on the 43.5 latitude line, is defined for regions in China. The ecosystems include forests, croplands and grasslands. The transect is defined by a strong rainfall gradient, and includes a variety of land use options. The transect also includes three long-term ecological research sites operated by the Chinese Ecological research network (CERN of the CAS). The LUTEA will utilize this transect for investigating land use changes in this region of TEA. It has been proposed for the extension of this transect to extend into Mongolia to facilitate comparisons in land use intensity.

A north-south transect is proposed that would represent a gradient in rainfall and socio-economic factors. This north-south oriented transect would also capture the potential changes land surface exchanges that may interact with the monsoonal incursions that strongly determine rainfall patterns in this region of the world. These transects will serve as initial study areas to better quantify changes in land use and cover dating the past several decades.

The ability to analyze the integrated effects of the factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic integrity relative to changes in socio-economic, climate and land use management factors of these temperate ecosystems is a complicated task. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems needs to be developed to organize fieldwork, modeling, and other related activities. Development of the framework for assessing changes and incorporation of information to integrate factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic dynamics in the Temperate East Asian region is the focus of this research plan.

Our ability to predict changes in the human-ecological system relative to climate or land use changes is dependent on the development of analytical tools to integrate our current understanding of how these ecosystems behave relative to human and environmental factors. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems is provided using a modelling approach that includes all the major components and links them together in a spatially integrated fashion. At the core of this approach is an ecological

process model that incorporates the changes in external forcing factors, including climate and management on net primary productivity and carbon.

Development of critical databases on physical, ecological and social-economic factors.

Database compilation of climate, topography, soils, and vegetation will be needed in order to evaluate land use and climate interactions for various land management practices implemented in the region. The use point or station data interpolated across the region will be made when possible. Remote sensing data for land cover will be incorporated in the analysis of current land cover and land use for the region. A number of research groups are actively working on a set of land cover data bases for this region.

Information on various levels of social institutions needs to be evaluated to identify the manner in which decisions are made that determine land-use systems under political units in the region. The analysis of this information will need to incorporate the critical factors of the physical environment, including climate and soil factors, but also include the human factors. Predictions of long-term agricultural and ecological sustainability in relationship to variations in livestock abundance, cropping types, and other land uses are needed to assess the full range of ecological impacts of agricultural development. These predictions require a synthesis of the long-term effects of livestock on forage plant production and survival; the effects of human wood use on woody plant populations; the direct and indirect effects of livestock on soil structure and fertility; and agricultural use of water, soil, other resources, and technologies. The importance of past and current climate and land use cannot be overlooked in assessing the how these ecosystems has developed over the centuries and changes in the future relative to new policies, technological advances, economic conditions, and environmental constraints.

Development of analytical procedures.

Scaling of information between ecological and physical data and social-economic data needs special attention due to the difference in the factors defining boundaries defining ecological and social-economic systems. Physical data can often be spatially defined by topographic boundaries such as watershed, mountain ranges, river basins, etc. However, social-economic data are often organized by geopolitical boundaries, with little connection between the physical and social-economic scales. Time scale differences between the two systems are also quite distinct. Physical data can often range from continuous to point data, whereas, social-economic data are snapshots in time, ranging from annual to decadal in nature (e.g., taxation data, census data, birth rate, etc.). These differences between the physical, ecological, and social-economic systems create a number of problems for integration of data across these systems, however, a number of methods are being developed to integrate across these systems and evaluation of these techniques need to be applied for the situations found in this region.

Models need to be able to evaluate land uses and ecological integrity along a gradient of environmental factors. With these models, we will be able to evaluate various scenarios of land use and climatic changes. The models employed are capable of simulating ecosystem responses to changes in climate and to various land use practices at the landscape to regional scale, and include processes such as, plant production, soil fertility, water availability, and agroecosystem dynamics. These models are used at various spatial and temporal scales. Models that integrate information on policy, economic, social, and cultural factors within a given environmental setting and provide information on land use practices need to be formulated.

The Models. Century is a general model of the plant-soil ecosystem capable of simulating C and nutrient dynamics for grasslands, forests, croplands, and combined forest-herbaceous systems (Parton et al. 1987, 1988, 1993, 1994; Sanford et al. 1991; Kelly et al. in press). Century's four submodels represent plant production, water fluxes, soil organic matter dynamics, and nutrient cycling. Grazing, fire, cultivation, organic matter addition, irrigation, erosion, and harvest are some of the management activities that can be represented. The Century model is capable not only of simulating the results of indirect effects of increasing CO₂ (changes in temperature and precipitation), but direct effects as well (CO₂ fertilization effect, changes in water use efficiency) with an effect of up to 30% enhancement. It is also possible for us to represent the down-regulation of these enhancements due to nutrient feedbacks.

In recent years, the agroecosystem version of Century has been used to simulate management effects on agricultural lands (Rasmussen and Parton 1994, Parton and Rasmussen 1994, Paustian et al. 1992, Kelly et al. in press). Probert et al. (1995) demonstrated that Century captured treatment differences (fertilizer, tillage) better than APSIM (McCown et al. 1995), though did not provide as satisfactory a prediction of interannual variability in crop yields. The authors found no substantive difference in the ability of the two models to provide insight into cropping system behavior. As part of the Rothamsted Experiment Station model intercomparison (Smith et al. in press), Century was among the best models in predicting soil organic matter C dynamics, and did a good job of illustrating among-treatment differences in yield/productivity, though again did not completely capture the interannual variability (Kelly et al. in press). Century has also been used to simulate climate change and land use effects on the Great Plains system (Schimel et al. 1990, Burke et al. 1994, Ojima and Kittel 1995, Ojima et al. 1991) and grasslands worldwide (Ojima et al. 1993b, Ojima et al. 1996, Parton et al. 1993). Century requires climate, land use (current and historical), and crop variety data in order to simulate accurately the existing land use or to provide a reasonable prediction of future land use consequences.

The Agricultural Sector Model (ASM; McCarl et al. 1993, Adams et al. 1994) is a dynamic spatial equilibrium model (Takayama and Judge, 1971) of agricultural commodity markets in the US. This non-linear mathematical model solves simultaneously for the welfare-maximizing product price, output levels for each market and period, and the wealth-maximizing investment of resources in asset markets for land. ASM employs 11 supply regions and a single national demand region for agricultural sectors, and simulates 36 primary crops, and 39 secondary products from crops and livestock. As input information, the economic model requires a crop budget for the region of interest (in our case provided by Brian Hurd [Hagler-Bailly consulting, Boulder, CO]). ASM uses relatively simplistic estimates of crop yield by region to determine optimal acreage distribution when run in a stand-alone situation (McCarl, pers. comm.).

The Integrated Model System. ASM and Century are integrated through the transfer of input and output information files that are manually implemented in each model. Century supplies yield and agronomic input information to ASM for the major crops (in the appropriate rotations as determined from the NASS county-level crop database:

[http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu:70/1/data-sets/crops/9X100/]

in a region with current, lower, and higher amounts of fertilizer and water addition. We allow only the fertilizer and irrigation to change, because we expect that these would be the most likely changes in the field. ASM then optimizes acreage distribution, and fertilization and irrigation level for each rotation based on costs and profits (Fig. 1). The optimal land use types are passed to Century, and the process repeats for the desired number of exchanges. Exchanges are completed every five years based on average yields and inputs. Our methodology is described at length in Ojima et al. (in press).

The integrated model needs to incorporate the extensive information that exists on current land use practices. This framework needs to link the ecological, social, and economical sectors within an integrated structure. Information needed include records of weather and plant productivity, land use history, and socio-economic trends. Many factors and decisions bear directly on land use, including what land units are available for grazing or cropping, the severity of the climate, price of various input and output commodities, cultural and political constraints to the type of cropping system, or livestock system. The use of linked social-economic and ecosystem models is an integral component to the assessment at both the regional and local scale of ecological and socio-economical integrity.

Technological advances in remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and ecological simulation modeling have increased our ability to link information across a broad array of disciplines. This ability has allowed us to begin to answer a variety of complex issues related to changing patterns of environmental and socio-political drivers in the Central US. Both in the US and in temperate east Asia we are using remote sensing data to establish patterns of land cover. The temperate east Asian land cover has been classified in collaboration with the EROS Data Center and Asian scientists resulting in the Temperate East Asian Landcover (TEAL) database (Ojima et al 1997). Since land use change is a dynamic process, the integration of GIS with simulation techniques provides a way to examine their spatial and temporal characteristics and identify forces contributing to land use change. The utility and information content of GIS and RS data depends on our knowledge of the socio-political, economic, and ecosystem structure and function. Thus, a way to increase the utility of RS and GIS data for interpreting land use-ecosystem process has been to combine RS and GIS with socio-economic and ecosystem modeling technologies.

Modeling studies at various levels have been useful to investigate the specific interfaces between ecological and socio-economic and political sectors. These studies address issues related to climate change's impacts; to grazing impacts at the landscape scale; integration of multiple land uses; nomadic movements relative to ecological - climatic factors; and land use decision making and nomadic movements relative to social, political, economic, and demographic factors.

A regional model framework to integrate the effects of multiple land use practices that impact ecological integrity of the agroecosystems of the US has been developed that links agroecosystem in a spatially explicit manner. The agroecosystems of the southcentral US has a mixture of land use practices ranging from intensive agriculture (i.e., irrigated and fertilized croplands) to extensive use (i.e., grazing) of rangelands and woodlands. The spatial and temporal use of various landscape units for these different land use practices affects ecological integrity relative to soil fertility, plant production, water availability, and economic integrity relative to net economic gains integrated over the entire landscape and across the diverse land use practices. We plan to implement this scheme to the temperate Asian region.

Predictions of long-term agricultural and ecological sustainability in relationship to variations in livestock abundance, cropping types, and other land uses are needed to assess the full range of ecological impacts of agricultural development. These predictions require a synthesis of the long-term effects of livestock on forage plant production and survival; the effects of human wood use on woody plant populations; the direct and indirect effects of livestock on soil structure and fertility; and agricultural use of water, soil, other resources, and technologies.

Implementation of a spatial modeling and remote sensing scheme over larger areas will require a larger network of information flow (Figure 2). This scheme provides a methodology to integrate physical and social-cultural-economic data into land use/cover change studies. Monitoring over larger regions can be achieved through a hierarchically organized system where information flows upwards from local studies to provide assessments over larger spatial areas. In addition, it is important to be able to understand the social context of land use decisions. In the Great Plains of the US, we are evaluating differences in production goals related to land use activities to determine how these operators will perform across a gradient of climate and economic conditions (Table1). Local information is then able to be integrated with physical information to better understand region-wide responses to environmental conditions. Spatial variations in landscape properties must be integrated with ecosystem processes to understand or predict the dynamics of the agroecosystems.

Sponsors of LUTEA research are: START, APN, NASA, NSF, DOE-NIGEC

Collaborators: Chuluun Togtohyn1, Zhao Shidong5, Fu Congbin5, William E. Easterling2, William J. Parton1, Robin Kelly1, Bruce McCarl2, Lenora Bohren1, Kathleen Galvin1, Brian Hurd3, Jill Lackett1. (1. Colorado State University; 2. Pennsylvania State University, 3. Hagler-Bailly, Inc. 4. Texas A&M, 5 Chinese Academy of Sciences)

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Smith, P., J.U. Smith, D.S. Powlson, J.R.M. Arah, O.G. Chertov, K. Coleman, U. Franko, S. Frolking, H.K. Gunnewick, D.S. Jenkinson, L.S. Jensen, R.H. Kelly, A.S. Komarov, C. Li, J.A.E. Molina, T. Mueller, W.J. Parton, J.H.M. Thornley, and A.P. Whitmore. A comparison of the performance of nine soil organic matter models using datasets from seven long- term experiments. Geoderma (in press).

Takayama, T. and G.G. Judge. 1971. Spatial and Temporal Price Allocation Models. North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Turner, II, B.L. and W.B. Meyer. 1991. Land use and land cover in global environmental change: considerations for a study. ISSJ 130: 669-679.

Figure 1. Data integration between Century agroecosystem model and the Agricultural System Model (ASM) to implement joint economic-ecosystem dynamics to changing climate forcing for regional land use analysis.

Figure 2. Linkage of physical and social-economic data for integrated analysis of Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA) studies.

The steering committee is very grateful for the support that the START secretariat, TEACOM secretariat, the Asian Pacific Network, the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, the Chinese Academy of Sciences CISNAR for there financial and logistical support. Without the support of these organizations the development of LUTEA would not have been possible. In addition, the steering committee is very grateful to the scientists who have contributed their time and effort in the formation of the LUTEA network and the willingness to collaborate in this important scientific and social endeavor.

Dennis S. Ojima, Chairperson of LUTEA Steering Committee

Members of the LUTEA Steering Committee:
Fu Congbin
Teitaro Kitamura
Zhao Shidong
Chuluun Togtohyn
Liu Yanhua

This page coded by Karen Shibuya and is © NREL 1999. It was last updated Friday, October 15, 1999 02:22:56 PM