SUMMARY OF LUTEA ACTIVITIES AND PRODUCTS

Funding: NASA and START

Outputs: 1-km land cover maps based on the AVHRR-derived satellite data prepared by EROS-Data Center. The TEAL database is on the anonymous ftp site: ftp.nrel.colostate.edu in the directory: /NREL/stretch/teal. In this directory, there is a tar file named, tealdb.tar.gz. This contains the ARCInfo grids classified by the TEAL, Olson, and IGBP classification levels. The TEAL database and it's derivatives are based on the 1 km AVHRR data provided by the the EROS Data Center's Global Seasonal Land Cover classification. Access to database upon request through ftp server.

June 1998
Ulanbaataar, Mongolia
15 students and 5 instructors from 5 countries
Funding: APN, USGCRP (through START), NASA and Mongolian Ministry for Nature and the Environment

Product: Training for East Asian scientists in ecosystem modeling, GIS and remote sensing techniques for evaluation of land use and land cover dynamics. Explanation of methodology of coupling information between the analytical tools. Instructors included researchers actively involved in LUCC, GCTE and LUTEA studies. Instructional material drawn land cover analyses and remote sensing coverage developed during May 1997 TEAL Database Workshop.

Instructional materials included working with GIS/Remote sensing/modeling techniques for land use/cover change analysis relevant to the region.

August 1998
16 researchers from China, Mongolia, USA countries, with collaboration with UNEP Biodiversity Project in Mongolia, Japanese Study on Remote Sensing of Mongolian Grasslands
Funding: NSF Project, Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, NASA, USGS-BRD

1998-1999
Data ordered by J. Compton Tucker in collaboration with LUTEA research needs.
Funds: NASA

Dennis Ojima, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, USA, Chair
Participants: Zhao Shidong, Fu Congbin, Chuluun Togtohyn, Liu Jiyuan, Kuninori Otsubo
Funding: USGCRP (through START) and Chinese Academy of Sciences

Outcome: Defining the LUTEA research framework and identification of major topic areas for research, including:

November 1996
Kyoto, Japan
45 attendees from 10 countries
Funding: APN and USGCRP (through START)

Review of research being conducted in the region on land use/cover change; definition of scope of LUTEA; proposed activities for LUTEA, including:

Outputs: Summary report and draft science plan.

May 1997
Sioux Falls, SD
Presentations of research groups actively involved in developing land cover maps in Asia and conducting landuse/cover studies in Asia. 20 attendees from 6 countries (China, Mongolia, Japan, Russia, India, US).
Funding: NASA and START

Outcome: Identify research needs for land cover maps of the Temperate East Asian (TEA) Region

March 2-5, 1998
Beijing, China
100 attendees from 9 countries
Funding: APN, USGCRP (through START) and Chinese Academy of Sciences

Plenary Addresses and Poster Presentations on agriculture, forests, grasslands, integrated analysis, land use change, remote sensing and soils.

Working Group Discussions on:

Outputs: Book of abstracts published for conference; proceedings forthcoming.

April/May 1999
Funding pending from START
Objectives: Finalization of LUTEA science plan and development of strategy to create an integrated database of gridded information to evaluate current land use and to investigate possible policy changes related to C fluxes, greenhouse gas emissions, C sequestration and land use policies.

Synthesis Presentation on LUTEA and Regional Climate Model for Monsoon Asia.  IGBP Congress.  May 1999.  Shonan Village, Japan.  Draft outline provided (Attachment A) on TEA Regional Ecosystem-Atmosphere Connections of joint research between LUTEA (Ojima) and TEACOM (Fu).

LUTEA Symposium.  Open Meeting of Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change.  June 1999.  Shonan Village, Japan.   Suggested Presentations (Abstracts attached as Attachment B):  Dennis Ojima, "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change:  Impacts on Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA):  Integration of Ecosystem and Economic Factors Determining Land Use Under Climate Change";  Zhao Shidong: "Interactions Among Population Growth, Consumption and Land Use Change -- A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China"; Kuninori Otsubo:  "A New Concept for Land Use Change Simulation Model Projections for China"; T. Chuluun:  "Factors Affecting Land Use Change in Mongolia:  A Case Study for Evaluating the Sustainable Land Use System for the Next Century."

Presentations on Mongolian Transect.   International Rangeland Congress Workshop.  July 1999.  Suggested Presentations:  Climate and Grazing Sensitivity of the Mongolian Rangeland Ecosystem Togtohyn Chuluun and Dennis Ojima; Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon and C-13 in the Mongolian Steppe and Grasslands of North America. L. Tieszen, D. S. Ojima, and T Chuluun; Factors influencing production systems of the Mongolian Steppe: Potential Global Change Impacts on Semi-Arid Ecosystems. D. S. Ojima, L. Tieszen, T. Chuluun, J. Belnap, J. Dodd.

Draft outline provided (Attachment A) on TEA Regional Ecosystem-Atmosphere Connections of joint research between LUTEA (Ojima) and TEACOM (Fu).

Open Meeting of Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
June 1999
Shonan Village, Japan
Suggested Presentations (Abstracts attached as Attachment B):

Dennis Ojima: "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA): Integration of Ecosystem and Economic Factors Determining Land Use Under Climate Change"

Zhao Shidong: "Interactions Among Population Growth, Consumption and Land Use Change -- A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China"

Kuninori Otsubo: "A New Concept for Land Use Change Simulation Model Projections for China"

T. Chuluun: "Factors Affecting Land Use Change in Mongolia:  A Case Study for Evaluating the Sustainable Land Use System for the Next Century"

International Rangeland Congress Workshop
July 1999
Suggested Presentations:

October 1999
Beijing, China

Funding: NASA and START

Beijing, China
March 2-5, 1998

Awaya, Yoshio
Baatar, Ravjaaglin
*Bayasgalan, Mijiddorjiin
Chang, Ching-Cheng
Christensen, Lindsey
Ellis, Jim
Erda, Lin
Erdenejav, Guriin
Fischer, Güenther
Fu, Congbin
Gong, Jianxin
Gunin, Peter D.
Himiyama, Yukio
Iglesias, Ana
Karakin, Vladimir
Khudulmur, S.
Kitamura, Teitaro
Lee, Dowon
*Lee, Re-yang
Leemans, Rik
Li, Bo
Li, Changsheng
Liu Chuang
Liu, Jiyuan
Liu, Yianhua
*Lu, Lixin
Lu, Qi
Matsumura, Kanichiro
Niu, Jianming
Ojima, Dennis
Otsubo, Kuninori
Sheingauz, Alexander
Shi, Paijun
Song, Dongha
*Sarantuya, N.
Togtohyn, Chuluun
Tucker, Compton James
Walsh, Meg
Wang, Qinxue
Wu, Chuanjun
Xiao, Ping
Xiao, Xiangming
Yamamoto, Hirokazu
Zhang, Xinshi
Zhao, Mincha
Zhao, Shidong

Dennis Ojima:  "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA):  Integration of Ecosystem and Economic Factors Determining Land Use Under Climate Change"

Zhao Shidong:  "Interactions Among Population Growth, Consumption and Land Use Change -- A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China"

Kuninori Otsubo:  "A New Concept for Land Use Change Simulation Model Projections for China"

T. Chuluun:  "Factors Affecting Land Use Change in Mongolia:  A Case Study for Evaluating the Sustainable Land Use System for the Next Century"

Dennis S. Ojima
Email: dennis@nrel.colostate.edu
Fax: (970) 491 1965

The impact of climate change on temperate ecosystems (such as croplands, grasslands, and forests) affects physical, ecological and socio-economic processes. Changes in these processes affects the soil fertility, soil moisture, and soil organic matter resulting in further regional land use and climate changes. These changes in land use and climate at the regional scale are often quite different from national or continental scale changes, so that regional differences are expected relative to land use decisions. Integrated assessments (IA) are needed to more completely model whole human-environment systems. IA efforts are under way that provide spatial and sectoral detail necessary to achieve reliable estimates of land use and ecological changes at county to regional scales.

The objectives here are: (1) to explore the development of an information linkage between a terrestrial ecosystem model and social economic data; (2) to describe the analytical framework to assess the importance of the critical human and environmental factors controlling land use decisions at local and regional scales. This presentation provides insight to the interactions of climate, ecosystem, economic and socio-cultural interactions controlling land use change at local to regional scales. The ability to analyze the integrated effects of the factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic integrity relative to changes in climate and land use management of these ecosystems is a complicated task. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems is provided using a modelling approach that includes all the major components and links them together in an integrated fashion. Development of this framework for assessing changes and incorporation of information to integrate factors controlling ecosystem and social-economic dynamics.

Technological advances in remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and ecological simulation modeling have increased our ability to link information across a broad array of disciplines. This ability has allowed us to begin to answer a variety of complex issues related to changing patterns of environmental and socio-political drivers in the Temperate East Asia. Since land use change is a dynamic process, the integration of GIS with simulation techniques provides a way to examine their spatial and temporal characteristics and identify forces contributing to land use change. The utility and information content of GIS and RS data depends on our knowledge of the socio-political, economic, and ecosystem structure and function. Thus, a way to increase the utility of RS and GIS data for interpreting land use-ecosystem process has been to combine RS and GIS with socio-economic and ecosystem modeling technologies.

Collaborators: Chuluun Togtohyn1, Zhao Shidong5, Fu Congbin5, (1. Colorado State University; 5 Chinese Academy of Sciences)

ZHAO SHIDONG¹, ¹Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 3 Datun Road, P.O. Box 9717, Beijing 100101, P.R. China, Phone: 86-10-6494-8463, Fax: 86-10-6493-1970, zhaosd@cern.ac.cn.

The Pearl River Delta is presently one of the most developed areas in China. The high economic growth rates of the Delta have been accompanied by rapid industrialization and urbanization, and a very large and steady immigration from the rest of China since early 1980s. These trends have led to many problems in land use and environmental protection. Research into these problems will be very useful for sustainable development in this area, and in China too.

Population growth and consumption are key driving forces of land use change in this area. In order to explore the internal mechanism of land use dynamics, a better understanding of their interaction is necessary. In this paper, the basic relationship among population growth, consumption and land use change is described in the following diagram:

In the Pearl River Delta, the rapid population growth since early 1980s is mainly from immigration. Its impact on land use is through the change of consumption structure. The feedback impact of land use change on population growth is mainly through two links: ecosystem and economic development. Based on detailed analysis of the interacting process and consequence among population growth, consumption and land use change. The paper finally puts forward following recommendations for sustainable development in this area:

Dennis S. Ojima
Email: dennis@nrel.colostate.edu
Fax: (970) 491 1965

The impact of climate change on temperate ecosystems (such as croplands, grasslands, and forests) affects physical, ecological and socio-economic processes. Changes in these processes affects the soil fertility, soil moisture, and soil organic matter resulting in further regional land use and climate changes. These changes in land use and climate at the regional scale are often quite different from national or continental scale changes, so that regional differences are expected with in land use decisions relative to climate change. Integrated assessments (IA) are needed to more completely model whole human-environment systems. IA efforts are under way that provide spatial and sectoral detail necessary to achieve reliable estimates of land use and ecological changes at county to regional scales.

The objectives here are: (1) to explore the development of an information linkage between the CENTURY terrestrial ecosystem model and the agricultural sector model (ASM), an economic model, in order to assess changes in the human-environmental system of the temperate systems in response to climate change; (2) to describe the analytical framework to assess the importance of the critical human and environmental factors controlling land use decisions at local and regional scales. This presentation provides insight to the interactions of climate, ecosystem, economic and socio-cultural interactions controlling land use change at local to regional scales. Use of land manager (farmers and ranchers) surveys provide insight to factors affecting land use decisions that over-ride certain of the economic assumptions and changes the trend in land use within the temperate regions of Asia and the Great Plains of the United States. The ability to analyze the integrated effects of the factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic integrity relative to changes in climate and land use management of the these ecosystems is a complicated task. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems is provided using a modelling approach that includes all the major components and links them together in an integrated fashion. Development of this framework for assessing changes and incorporation of information to integrate factors controlling ecosystem and social-economic dynamics.

The integrated model needs to incorporate the extensive information that exists on current land use practices. This framework needs to link the ecological, social, and economical sectors within an integrated structure. Information needed include records of weather and plant productivity, land use history, and socio-economic trends. Many factors and decisions bear directly on land use, including what land units are available for grazing or cropping, the severity of the climate, price of various input and output commodities, cultural and political constraints to the type of cropping system, or livestock system. The use of linked social-economic and ecosystem models is an integral component to the assessment at both the regional and local scale of ecological and socio-economical integrity.

Technological advances in remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and ecological simulation modeling have increased our ability to link information across a broad array of disciplines. This ability has allowed us to begin to answer a variety of complex issues related to changing patterns of environmental and socio-political drivers in the Central US. Since land use change is a dynamic process, the integration of GIS with simulation techniques provides a way to examine their spatial and temporal characteristics and identify forces contributing to land use change. The utility and information content of GIS and RS data depends on our knowledge of the socio-political, economic, and ecosystem structure and function. Thus, a way to increase the utility of RS and GIS data for interpreting land use-ecosystem process has been to combine RS and GIS with socio-economic and ecosystem modeling technologies.

Modeling studies at various levels have been useful to investigate the specific interfaces between ecological and socio-economic and political sectors. These studies address issues related to climate change's impacts; to grazing impacts at the landscape scale; integration of multiple land uses; nomadic movements relative to ecological - climatic factors; and land use decision making and nomadic movements relative to social, political, economic, and demographic factors.

A regional model framework to integrate the effects of multiple land use practices that impact ecological integrity of the agroecosystems of the US has been developed that links agroecosystem in a spatially explicit manner. The agroecosystems of the southcentral US has a mixture of land use practices ranging from intensive agriculture (i.e., irrigated and fertilized croplands) to extensive use (i.e., grazing) of rangelands and woodlands. The spatial and temporal use of various landscape units for these different land use practices affects ecological integrity relative to soil fertility, plant production, water availability, and economic integrity relative to net economic gains integrated over the entire landscape and across the diverse land use practices. We plan to implement this scheme to the temperate Asian region.

Predictions of long-term agricultural and ecological sustainability in relationship to variations in livestock abundance, cropping types, and other land uses are needed to assess the full range of ecological impacts of agricultural development. These predictions require a synthesis of the long-term effects of livestock on forage plant production and survival; the effects of human wood use on woody plant populations; the direct and indirect effects of livestock on soil structure and fertility; and agricultural use of water, soil, other resources, and technologies.

Implementation of a spatial modeling and remote sensing scheme over larger areas will require a larger network of information flow. Monitoring over larger regions can be achieved through a hierarchically organized system where information flows upwards from local studies to provide assessments over larger spatial areas. Local information is integrated to understand region-wide response to environmental conditions. Spatial variations in landscape properties must be integrated with ecosystem processes to understand or predict the dynamics of the agroecosystems.

Sponsors of LUTEA research are: START, APN, NASA, NSF

Collaborators: Chuluun Togtohyn 1, Zhao Shidong 5, Fu Congbin 5, William E. Easterling 2, William J. Parton 1, Robin Kelly 1, Bruce McCarl 2, Lenora Bohren 1, Kathleen Galvin 1, Brian Hurd 3.

1 Colorado State University; 2 Pennsylvania State University, 3 Hagler-Bailly, Inc. 4 Texas A&M, 5 Chinese Academy of Sciences