DRAFT SCIENCE PLAN LAND USE IN TEMPERATE EAST ASIA (LUTEA)

The growing concern over the impact of changes in land use and land cover on environmental conditions and the increasing human impact on the natural resources in the Temperate East Asian region has captured the attention of the political and scientific community world-wide. In order to better understand the factors affecting changes in land use and cover in the region, and how these changes will interact with further global environmental changes the Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA) steering committee was formed by the START-Temperate East Asia Committee (TEACOM). The steering committee has been charged to develop a research framework to better facilitate interactions among the research groups actively investigating aspects of land use and land cover changes in the region, and to serve the policy community in order to better evaluate policy decisions on issues related to food security and environmental degradation in the region.

The LUTEA steering committee has deliberated for the past two years and recently held a workshop to bring together scientist engaged in land use/cover change research. The workshop included committee members of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and International Human Dimension Programme (IGBP/IHDP) Core Project on Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC). At this workshop, the scientists and the LUCC members jointly made several recommendations. These include:

The function of the LUTEA network will be:

This document is a distillation of the past two years of deliberation and survey of the research groups willing to participate and to form the nucleus of the LUTEA Network. The document provides a brief scientific rationale of the need for the LUTEA network and describes the framework for collaboration. This science plan incorporates input from two workshops held in Kyoto, Japan (8 and 9 November 1996) and Beijing, China 2 to 5 March 1998. The meetings have been sponsored with financial support from START, APN, and LUCC.

The steering committee is very grateful for the support that the START secretariat, TEACOM secretariat, the Asian Pacific Network, the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, the Chinese Academy of Sciences CISNAR for there financial and logistical support. Without the support of these organizations the development of LUTEA would not have been possible. In addition, the steering committee is very grateful to the scientists who have contributed their time and effort in the formation of the LUTEA network and the willingness to collaborate in this important scientific and social endeavor.

Dennis S. OJIMA, Chairperson of LUTEA Steering Committee

Members of the LUTEA Steering Committee:
CHULUUN Togtohyn
FU Congbin
KARAKIN, Vladimir
KITAMURA, Teitaro
LEE, Dowon
LIU, Ji-yuan
HIMIYAMA, Yukio
OTSUBO, Kuninori *
ZHAO Shidong

(* Kuninori Ostubo contributed in the writing of the Science Plan as part of his role as a member of the TEACOM steering committee)

The region of Temperate East Asia has long been recognized for its wealth of natural and human resources. However recently, concern related to the changing environmental conditions in the region due to increasing human pressures degrading the environment have captured the attention of the scientific and political communities. The role of land use and land cover change in maintaining and in some cases leading to the degradation of the environmental health and sustainability of human welfare is a critical to the future of the region. The increasing dependence and utilization of the land and water resources in this region will further tax the limits of the ecological systems and increase the risk of environmental degradation. In addition, the need to produce food and clean water for the growing number of people in the region will further focus attention on the changes in land use and land cover in the region.

Growing from this concern to better understand the factors determining land use and land cover changes in the region and evaluate the potential impact these changes will have on the human condition and future global environmental change, the Temperate East Asian Committee of START (TEACOM) sponsored a working group to develop a science plan for land use and cover change studies in this region. The Land Use in Temperate East Asia (LUTEA) working group developed a science plan and organized two workshops (LUTEA workshop November 8-9, 1996 in Kyoto, Japan and 2 to 5 March 1998 in Beijing, China, participants listed in Appendix 1) to refine the science plan and to develop an implementation strategy for LUTEA research activities. This document is the outgrowth of the LUTEA working group deliberations and the consensus view of the participants of the Kyoto and Beijing workshops.

This science plan provides the background for land use and cover change studies in the region, defines the structure of the LUTEA activities and outlines the next steps in the implementation of the LUTEA activities.

Our overall objectives are 1) to better understand the role and consequences of changes in climate, ecosystem dynamics, human demography, and socio-economic transitions on land use and land cover in temperate East Asia during the past 100 years and into the next decade; and 2) develop a mechanism to assess the short-term and long-term changes in food security and environmental conservation in the TEA region. The region of study extends from China; Korea, DPR; Korea, R; Japan; Mongolia; and Eastern Russia (Figure 1, TEAL map of land cover).

Specific objectives include:

In view of the important role of land use/cover change in this region to past and future changes in global earth system dynamics and the sustainable development of the region, the TEACOM steering committee on LUCC related studies has determined to develop coordination and integration entity for this region in the form of a network.

The function of the LUTEA network is:

The LUTEA steering committee has identified several key scientific issues related to land use/cover changes and these are consistent with the LUCC core project initiatives. These issues are:

Land use/cover changes in the Temperate East Asian (TEA) region has been a major factor in ecosystem changes for a long period of time. Agricultural and livestock developments have been recorded for millennia in this region. Currently the region is one of the most densely populated regions of the world. Due to a long history of environmental exploitation and recent population increases, the region is prone to environmental stresses such as salinization, desertification, deforestation, soil erosion, water pollution and air pollution. The impact of human activities on ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical exchanges with the atmosphere have resulted in dramatic changes in the fluxes of C, N, and other atmospheric constituents in the region.

This region covers all of East-Central Asia and South-East Asia north of the Philippines and south of the Arctic Circle. The climate is generally humid to semiarid and determined chiefly by the monsoonal circulation. A strong north to south rainfall and temperature gradient exists. Vegetation and land use practices change systematically across this north to south gradient with cool temperate forest and grasslands in the north where pastoral and forestry land use dominate. Toward the south more arable land is found in regions with mixed broad leaf forest, croplands, and ricefields.

The influence of land use change on terrestrial carbon dynamics constitutes a core research focus of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) (IGBP Report 21, [Steffen et al. 1992] and IGBP Report 24 [Turner et al. 1993]). Land use decisions are driven by mostly demographic and economic considerations at broad scales and by a medley of social, economic and environmental considerations at regional and local scales. Turner and Meyer (1991) recognized that the driving forces of land use change are different at different spatial scales, though some forces cut across all scales, such as population change. We agree, and argue that a hierarchical or spatially nested analytical framework is needed in order to understand how driving forces of land use and climate changes transform land covers at local to regional scales. In order to develop this frame work, there are currently a number of active research groups conducting studies related to LUTEA objectives. In addition to the existing studies, an IGBP transect has been established to carry out LUTEA studies.

Research in the region on various aspects of land use and land cover change is well developed. Research conducted by scientists from around the world are currently engaged in investigations ranging from changes in population affecting land use and natural resources, to impact of intensification of agriculture practices on atmospheric pollution. Studies are being conducted by social and physical scientists on various aspects of the land use and land cover change issues. However, many of the researchers are not aware of what other related research is being conducted and what information has already been gathered that may be relevant to their own research. The development of the LUTEA network will provide a mechanism for greater exchange of information useful for the scientific and the policy communities alike. The network will provide a vehicle for development of common databases that are needed by many of the LUTEA research groups. The workshop in Kyoto initiated the development of the network and we plan to hold a series of similar meetings to further facilitate the exchange of information.

The LUTEA Network consists of existing research groups engaged in investigations within the region (see Appendix of Ongoing LUTEA related Research). The research activities are categorized in topical (or sectoral) issues that are regionally relevant and in description of analytical and assessment methodologies employed by the research groups. The network members have agreed to share information and work together to develop analytical tools and databases in order to better address land use/cover changes in the region and the impact these will have on human welfare and environmental conditions. This information will also serve as a useful tool for policy makers and for evaluation of policy decisions.

The proposed structure of the LUTEA network will be to utilize gradients of important driving factors, such as physical conditions, natural resource base, land use, and economic development, to focus the research efforts in the region. The project will utilize information gathered from past and ongoing research efforts in this region. The use of transects to conduct the gradient analysis will be implemented where feasible. The North East China Transect will be available for this study, and discussion of developing another north-south transect is being considered. The transects will not be the only mechanism to integrate the research findings. The network will pull together information from a number of sources to address research issues along tropical or sectoral foci. The steering committee has selected four topical issues of regional and sectoral importance to the TEA region and defines the initial set of studies and integration activities. The regional sectoral issues are:

The integration activities are:

Currently, the North East China Transect (NECT), centered on the 43.5 latitude line, is defined for regions in China. The ecosystems include forests, croplands and grasslands. The transect is defined by a strong rainfall gradient, and includes a variety of land use options. The transect also includes three long-term ecological research sites operated by the Chinese Ecological research network (CERN of the CAS). The LUTEA will utilize this transect for investigating land use changes in this region of TEA. It has been proposed for the extension of this transect to extend into Mongolia to facilitate comparisons in land use intensity.

A north-south transect is proposed that would represent a gradient in rainfall and socio-economic factors. This north-south oriented transect would also capture the potential changes land surface exchanges that may interact with the monsoonal incursions that strongly determine rainfall patterns in this region of the world. These transects will serve as initial study areas to better quantify changes in land use and cover dating the past several decades.

Background. In the semiarid regions of the TEA, nomadic pastoralism has been the dominant agronomic activity for many centuries. Recently changes in cultural, political and economic factors have caused changes in how the pastoral systems operate within the region. Currently, a range of pastoral systems are operating in the region of China, Mongolia, and Russia. These systems encompass a range of grazing patterns (i.e., frequency, intensity of grazing and the types of animals). These systems have incorporated new breeding stocks that are potentially not suitable to certain climate regimes (e.g., drought conditions of the Gobi desert, cold hardiness against severe winter storms in the Inner Mongolian and Mongolian steppe region). These changes in pastoral management have altered the nomadic patterns of the region.

Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems where climate is highly variable. Thus in many ways pastoral livestock systems are intimately adapted to climatic variability. In general, there is a direct relationship between climate variability and the spatial scale of pastoral exploitation. Extensive nomadic systems are found in the most variable regions; less extensive, more intensive modes of livestock management occur in less variable grazing lands. Climate change in drylands can thus be expected to have important implications for the dynamics and viability of pastoral people, their exploitation patterns and through these exploitation patterns, on land cover and land cover change.

We also recognize the pervasive role of demographic, political and economic driving forces on pastoral exploitation. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. This set of drivers is orthogonal to the above described climate drivers. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces mentioned above. Nevertheless, the fundamental relationship between climate variability and pastoral exploitation patterns will still form the environmental framework for overall patterns of land use-land cover change.

In addition, recent political and economic changes (i.e., in the past 50 years) in land use management have resulted in a more sedentary livestock management system. These changes have led to more intensive stocking rates in localized areas and change in the breeds of animals used. More recent changes in the social-economic setting have forced new changes in pastoral management due to relaxation of central government controls and the implementation of a more "free-enterprise" system. What will result from these recent changes in unclear, and the effect on the human and natural resources of these arid and semi-arid regions need to be determined.

Critical Issues Factors of changes in pastoral land use in temperate East Asia

Climate:

Vulnerability/Resilience of Pastoral Systems:

Policy:

Market Forces:

Culture:

Management Systems:

Background. Agricultural output of the Temperate East region is one of the greatest in the world, and is well known for its double and triple cropping systems. High soil fertility, good climate conditions, and an industrious human resource base have all contributed to the rich agricultural production. However, a key issue for the regions is related to food security for the future. In order to maintain current levels of agricultural productivity, there is a need to identify the factors that will maintain sustainability of the agricultural systems relative to climate and other environmental factors. However, the variability is social-economic characteristics also influence the potential output of the agricultural systems and the extent by these systems may be enhanced.

There is a need to survey what agricultural systems exist. Also an analysis of which agricultural system would benefit by intensification of land use practices vs. what region may increase its productivity by increasing the land area under cultivation. Agricultural practices in the TEA has undergone radical changes in the production practices. During the past several decades the use of fertilizer has been markedly increased, introduction of high yielding varieties have been widely used, development of new irrigation systems, increased use of fertilizers, and other changes in agricultural practices. The result has been a significant increase in crop yields over past few decades. However the ability of the region to maintain this increase in crop production under current land use practices is questioned and in many areas soil fertility and water availability has declined. Changes in social structures within Asia may greatly alter the conservation of the environment due to loss of coherency among land users with the rural communities. The manner in which further agricultural developments are implemented or maintained in the region is a critical issue given the increasing human resource demands for agricultural production.

Background

The Prospect of tremendous growth of urban centers is staggering to perceive in the coming decades in Asia. Urban centers in Asia will number over 15, accounting for over 60% of the cities with populations greater than 10 million people. The urban growth is greatly modifying not only the surrounding area , but also rural areas and impacts of these changes on croplands, fuel resources, and water supply will be tremendous. How the reconstruction of these areas to cope with these issues and what effects will have the rural areas is and will increase in its importance in the coming decade.

As growth in population levels of urban areas continues, issues related to LUCC become increasingly a major factor in determining the viability of these urban areas. Questions related to the type of social structural entities that are needed to maintain the urban centers need to be addressed. This set of sectoral issues will rely more heavily on the understanding of social-economic topics. New integrated understanding may be needed to address these issues.

Critical Issues

1. Very rapid economic growth and population increase in urban areas

In last two decades, human population in urban areas has been increasing in East Asia, especially in rapid economic growth areas. There are two reasons for this population increase; one is natural increment caused by high ratio of young generation in cities; and, the other is social increment caused by migration from rural areas. The majority of migrating people are young, so that the latter enhances the former. Although there is no formal statistics, it is said that illegal migration from rural areas has been a very serious issue in China. Two reasons have been pointed out for this migration; one is positive, and the other, negative. The positive reason is that cities attract people by higher income and job opportunities and better living standard, such as public services. The negative reason is that rural areas can afford only limited numbers of people, depending on its capacity; in contrast, industrialization of rapid growth areas require cheap labor more than before; thus, more rural people have migrated to cities.

2. Decrease of highly productive grain cropland in rapid economic growth areas.

In terms of land use, urbanization and industrialization are competitive to agricultural activity. Both require wide and flat space and adequate fresh water resources. Rapid economic growth in East Asia have developed predominantly in the expansive low elevation plains of Asia. These fertile plains once supported a very productive grain producing economy. This agrarian economical based system is being displaced by more industrial and urban enterprises in this fertile region. Loss of arable land to urban expansion is a growing concern, especially when consumption patterns of the population is also rapidly changing. Rapid economic growth and urbanization have particularly strong effect on the communities, land uses and their environments in suburban rural areas. The major changes in these areas include not only the loss of good arable land as a direct result of urban expansion, but also socio-economic changes, such as the change in employment structure, that has no less influence on food production in suburban rural areas.

3. Environmental problems caused by rapid economic growth.

Mutually interacting dynamics of human population and economic growth will be referred to as pressure components, generating a demand for food, water, energy and raw materials. As these pressure components increase in urban areas, and the associated intensification of demands for food, fiber, building supplies, water, and other resources result in environmental degradation due to increased fertilizer and pesticide use in agriculture practices, polluted water discharge onto surface water, and increased emissions of air pollutants. These environmental pressures have changed the state of environment of urban areas and of the surrounding region.

5. Influences of rapid economic growth and urbanization on rural areas

It is not only in the vicinity of the major cities, as seen in 3 above, but also in more remote rural areas, where rapid economic growth and urbanization are changing communities, land uses and their environments. For example, the increasing demand of food in the major cities has a profound effect on the government's policy to develop new agricultural areas in peripheral regions. Such changes as industrialization or construction of new road networks that connect large cities also have very important effect on the land use in rural areas (regions), both directly and indirectly.

Key Questions

1. How fast and serious is the migration to urban and its surrounding areas?

It is very important to estimate future trend of urban population and its age structure because these values are fundamental to project future demands of food, energy, water, services and raw materials. It is rather easy to estimate the natural increase of population and the transform of age structure if census statistics are reliable. However, it is common for developing countries that these are scarce and sparse. To make the matter much worse, we have heard that illegal migration to cities are very common, but there are no statistics about that.

2. What is the mechanism of competition for land and other resources between urban and the surrounding areas?

To understand and project how rapidly cropland has been reduced, the mechanism of land use competition should be studied. This mechanism is fully dependent on social and economic factors as well as policies. In almost all countries, the mechanism of land use competition is mixture of free market concept and governmental regulations. However, the way of mixture differs among countries and even among regional (provincial scale). Furthermore, land use regulations differ between regions even in the same country. For instance, in the Tokyo Metropolitan area, a special law to enhance the conversion of farmland to urban use has been adopted since 1980s; however, other areas, this conversion has been restricted by another law.

3. What kinds of influences of rapid economic growth and urbanization on suburban rural areas are expected? How rapid has urban area expanded and will it expand, and how much has arable land decreased and will it decrease?

4. What kinds of environmental issues are concerned caused by rapid economic growth and urban expansion?

The state of environment in developing countries is even worse than that in developed countries although industrialization or urbanization has not advanced to the level of developed countries. Air pollution due to SOx, NOx may be much worse because of old and untreated motor vehicles and combustion of low quality coal in domestic use. Canals and channels in cities might have been more polluted by untreated effluents from industry, agricultural and domestic sectors. Water may also polluted by bacteria. Other serious problems are huge volumes of industrial and domestic wastes and health problems caused by chemical wastes. Very limited quantitative data on these issues have been reported, therefore, we can only point out possible negative environmental problems in developing countries at present.

5. What kinds of influences of rapid economic growth and urbanization on rural areas (regions) are expected? What are the magnitude and speed of the changes driven by those influences? What kinds of influences of urban areas on other rural areas (regions) are expected?

Tasks

Factors Affecting Changes in Natural and Managed Forests.

Critical Issues.

Tasks

The ability to analyze the integrated effects of the factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic integrity relative to changes in socio-economic, climate and land use management factors of these temperate ecosystems is a complicated task. A framework to simplify the complex interactions within and between various subsystems needs to be developed to organize fieldwork, modeling, and other related activities. Development of the framework for assessing changes and incorporation of information to integrate factors controlling ecosystem and socio-economic dynamics in the Temperate East Asian region is the focus of this research plan.