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We are integrating climate forecasts, livestock management, and modeling to help optimize how livestock owners may respond to drought.

To learn more about the components of our work:

ENSO Patterns

Farm Ecosystem

Climate Forecasts

Farm Management

Farm Economics

Savanna Modeling

Our research is supported by
Climate Forecasts

The climate forecasts used in our work are produced by the South African Weather Bureau (SAWB). They produce a suite of short term forecasts, include a national summary and provincial forecasts, temperature and traveller's forecasts, seven day forecasts, and charts and satellite images.

Our focus is upon the SAWB seasonal forecasts. Their long term predictions include 14 day, monthly, and seasonal forecasts. They also produce an ENSO advisory for the country.

Unfortunately, predicting future climate with certainty is not possible in any country. Instead, the SAWB forecasts report probabilities that the month or season will be wetter than normal, normal, or drier than normal. For example, a forecast of 20% | 30% | 50% for a season would say that there was a 20% chance of the season being wet, 30% chance of the season being normal, and a 50% chance of the season being dry.

Used with permission
The maps from SAWB shown above are prediction in April for rainfall for May through July 2001 (left), and July through September (right). Our study area, in red in the map on the left, has a forecast for a 20% chance of rainfall above normal, and a 50% chance of rainfall below normal. Later in 2001, SAWB estimates a 40% chance of rainfall being below normal. Please click on one of the images or the link to SAWB above to view updated maps.

Edited: Apr 9, 2001